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Guideline Insights — March 2026
The Path to Growth
Canada's advertising spend trends in 2025 — and what lies ahead for 2026
SW
Sean Wright · Chief Insights & Analytics Officer
2025 Trends & Recap
Ad market contracted due to economic headwinds
Canada's advertising market declined 1% overall in 2025, shaped by tariff uncertainty, digital pricing pressure, and TV audience fragmentation.
+$80M
The World Series added $80M in incremental ad spend for October — a major boost that masked underlying market weakness.
−$51M
Shifts in US trade policy directly impacted ~$51M in ad spend cuts within the Guideline data set, as brands pulled back amid tariff uncertainty.
−12%
Average digital eCPMs declined 12% — the largest year-over-year pricing drop since 2019, driven by oversupply of ad inventory.
Key insight: Without the World Series lift in October, Canada's ad market would have contracted every single month from the point US tariffs were announced.
Canada Media Spend 2023–2025 (Monthly, CAD $M)
CY-2023
CY-2024
CY-2025
Source: Guideline Canadian data
Total Canadian Ad Revenue by Media Grouping — CY 2024 vs CY 2025 (CAD $B)
Digital Performance
Linear
Traditional - Other
CTV
+2.9%
Digital Performance YoY
−10.5%
Linear TV YoY
−7.8%
Traditional Other YoY
+21.6%
CTV YoY
Source: Guideline Canadian data
Where did Linear TV dollars go? (CYTD 2025 vs STLY)
Source: Guideline Source of Volume Analysis
TV's investment challenge in a fragmented ecosystem
27%
of TV dollars were reinvested in streaming, with the remainder fragmenting across the market.
Streaming captured the largest single share, but the majority of TV dollars scattered across social, digital, OOH, and search — signaling no single digital channel has yet emerged as a direct TV replacement.
Digital Pricing
Pricing changed little despite volume pressure
Digital eCPM by Media Type — Q1 2023 to Q4 2025
Programmatic
Digital Audio
Streaming
CTV
Social
Source: Guideline Pricing data
Q4 2025 eCPM Leaders
Streaming$28.81
CTV$21.97
Social$18.66
Programmatic$16.86
Digital Audio$4.56
Pricing remains flat across media types as expanding ad inventory supply continues to cap topline CPM growth.
Streaming faces additional pressure from low linear TV eCPMs (~$7), as buyers compare streaming rates to the TV floor price.
2026 Global Outlook
Growth continues — but it's event-dependent
Global ad spend is projected to grow +4.0% in 2026, with growth heavily front-loaded by the Olympics and FIFA World Cup. Risk rises in H2.
$236B
Guideline global pool forecast (CAD)
+4.0%
Projected global YoY growth
7.3%
Strongest quarter (Q1 2026)
1.6%
Weakest quarter (Q4 2026)
Global Ad Spend 2018–2026 (CAD, billions)
Source: Guideline Global Ad Spend Forecast
2026 YoY Growth by Quarter
Olympics (Q1) expected to deliver the largest boost, driving the 7.3% surge in the first quarter.
FIFA World Cup helps sustain momentum into late Q2 and Q3 with strong TV + streaming investment.
H2 risk: Weakness in the US and UK markets pulls the global forecast lower in Q4. Canada and Australia expected to offset with stronger domestic performance.
2026 Canadian Outlook
Growth expected — but economic challenges persist
Canada's ad market is forecast to reach $7.0B in 2026, a +3.1% gain over 2025. Digital formats drive the recovery while traditional channels continue their structural decline.
↑ Tailwinds
Economic outlooks remain positive as 2025 H1 comps were weak — easy base for growth
Global tentpoles (Olympics, World Cup) expected to boost TV + CTV in Q1 and Q3
↓ Headwinds
Auto likely to remain challenged despite tariff ruling — OEM and dealer spend at risk in H1
Weakening job market + affordability concerns likely to slow consumer spending
+6.4%
Performance & Digital Formats
Search, Social, OOH, CTV, Programmatic
−5.6%
Traditional Formats
Radio, Print, Linear TV
*Overall forecast of +3.1% includes one-off tentpoles like World Cup + Olympics. Source: Guideline
Canadian Ad Spend Forecast 2022–2026 (CAD, billions)
+3.1% projected growth in 2026 vs the historic 2.2% CAGR. Streaming, Social, and Programmatic expected to drive the majority of gains.
Source: Guideline Global Ad Spend Forecast 2026
Canadian Ad Revenue by Media Grouping — CY 2025 vs CY 2026 Projected (CAD $B)
Digital Performance
Linear
Traditional - Other
CTV
+6.1%
Digital Performance YoY
−5.1%
Linear TV YoY
−2.6%
Traditional Other YoY
+19.3%
CTV YoY
Source: Guideline Canadian data
Category forecast — risk to cut vs. opportunity to grow in 2026
Alcoholic Beverages
Automotive
Media & Entertainment
CPG
Consumer Electronics
Personal Care
Finance
Travel
Restaurants
Telco
Retail
Source: Guideline data + assessment of macro factors
🚗
Automotive
Growth in parts & services, but potential risk remains for dealers + OEMs in H1 despite tariff rulings.
🏦
Payments / Finance
Regulatory and tech tailwinds could drive incremental ad spend and bolster the broader finance category.
✈️
Travel
Tourism board and airline spend likely to expand as the US travel boycott shows no signs of slowing, redirecting Canadians domestically and abroad.
Risks & Unknowns
Three open questions for 2026
The forecast is constructive — but these unresolved factors could materially shift the outlook in either direction.
Economic Uncertainty
What's the deal with tariffs?
Will new trade deals emerge to offset border uncertainty? The scale and duration of US tariffs on Canadian goods remains the biggest swing factor for advertiser confidence heading into 2026.
Policy & Regulation
How will data, privacy, and AI rules affect advertising?
Ongoing conversations around AI-generated content, audience data use, and privacy regulation in Canada could reshape targeting capabilities and add compliance costs for advertisers.
Category Dynamics
One-offs or structural growth drivers?
Emerging categories — Cannabis ad pilots, GLP-1 (weight loss drug) marketing, and fintech/payments tailwinds — could surprise on the upside if they scale beyond pilot programs in 2026.
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